Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
